THE REVOLT IN CHINA: WHAT IT MEANS
celiafarber.substack.com
THE REVOLT IN CHINA: WHAT IT MEANS
Urgent Free Broadcast From JON RAPPOPORT
LINK TO RAPPOPORT HERE.
And a few Tweets.
Note: I can’t vouch for everybody whose tweets I share. Together we can weigh and discern. I chose those that stood out to me.
Protests in China are not rare. What *is* rare, are multiple protests over the same issue, at the same time, across the country. The protest below, apparently in central Beijing’s liangmaqiao, is astounding
#China #protests
Families in a hi-rise in China were locked into their apartments as their building caught fire. Urumqi, in Xinjiang Province
They burned alive as they couldn't escape and no one could get to them in time
This is directly on the CCP and Xi's Zero-Covid lockdown strategy
Jon Rappoport is a friend and ally of this “war of continuation” (we were both HIV dissent writers in 80s, when Jon published AIDS Inc: Scandal of The Century) since the 1980s. I am an admirer equally of his writings and his broadcasts. Each outstanding. One of the many things I like so much about Jon’s broadcasts is the way he uses time, (as well as cadence,) (and humor.) It distinguishes him from almost all broadcasters working today.
Xi’s Last Slaves: Young Chinese Refusing To Reproduce
My bro is a pilot who flies to China a lot and sent me this:
Proficient English speaking Chinese man got on board in a suit and told me:
"We're all slaves here. The younger generation knows they are slaves, but they will not reproduce. They said they will be Xi's last slaves."
Now they’re finally awake to the Zero Covid catastrophe in China, the BBC, Sly News, CNN and C4 should apologise for their demonisation of the brave freedom fighters who marched against lockdowns in the UK and the West.
They were not conspiracy theorists, they were right.
Free for all to listen: RAPPOPORT LINK HERE.
Below is a consolidated version of a series of tweets that can be found here:
https://twitter.com/wjhurst/status/1596722048717709312
I've been studying various aspects of protest & contentious politics in China for 25 years.
What's happening now is novel, interesting, & potentially quite important. But we need to be careful about drawing conclusions or making predictions.
Since 1989, we've seen 5 main strands/repertoires of contention in China:
1) labour protest
2) rural protest
3) student protest
4) urban governance protest
5) systematic political dissent
Each of these has usually been disaggregated locally and separated from the others.
Labour politics has seen millions of laid-off (xiagang) SOE workers take to the streets, as well as many hundreds of thousands of their counterparts among migrant workers in export-processing manufacturing industries.
Most demanded workplace protections, union rights, or welfare benefits. But they didn't usually link up cross-regionally or seek common cause with rural residents, students, or others. One significant exception was the so-called Jasic Incident and its aftermath in 2018...
Rural protests have tended to revolve around payment for grain (IOU Crisis), "peasant burdens" (农民负担), provision of essential public goods, or corruption/malfeasance by local officials.
These often have significant impact locally, but seldom beyond.
Student protests have been rarer, but usually either about campus issues or general and philosophical in nature. Occasionally, as in the Jasic Incident, they can be in solidarity with workers, villagers, or others. But they've been largely less significant since June 4.
Many have also noted the prevalence of protests around urban governance and the provision of basic public goods and services - from neighbourhood services to environmental protection, even education and healthcare. These also have tended to be local and specific in nature.
Generalised political dissent is very rare in its expression, but we've seen it from time to time, as in the Charter 08 movement & other manifestations.
Usually repressed quickly and harshly, its impact has mostly been confined to a small set of cosmopolitan intellectuals.
Aside from these, we've also seen ethnic/minority protest (e.g. among Uyghurs or Tibetans), but this has had very limited resonance across the wider population. It's also been extremely harshly repressed, especially since about 2013.
What's happened in the past 24 hours is novel in that protesters have appeared on the streets in multiple cities with apparent knowledge of what is happening in other parts of the country. They're all mobilising around #Covid, but this is refracted through distinct lenses.
This is what makes the current moment especially interesting and possibly important and dangerous. But the trajectory from here is not certain.
I can see at least three possible ways forward, in declining order of likelihood & increasing order of importance/danger...
What is also very interesting, though, is that the state response last night was not nearly as harsh, repressive, or even coordinated as we might have predicted.
If we look at this lacklustre response through the lens of experiences across #Indonesia & SE Asia, it might suggest the lurking presence of at least tacit elite allies. Such a factor would substantially complicate the picture.
But, if we assume no elite backers, the most likely scenario I can see is that the protests fizzle out (as most such movements do in most countries). Having erupted spontaneously in a short period, they will fade away without reaching any climax or denouement.
A second possibility is some form of comprehensive & decisive repression.
This could take the form of a coordinated and possibly quite violent crackdown (as in 1989) or it could be slower-motion and at least somewhat less bloody (as in HK in 2019-2020).
Either form of repression would be extremely costly for the state, however (both in fiscal and reputational terms). It would not be undertaken lightly, as it would also raise the stakes. It's thus a decidedly second-best option and not as likely as the protests fizzling.
A third and much less likely option would be concessions or systemic change. This could range from a relaxation of some #ZeroCovid measures to genuine political opening of some sort. I very much do not think this is in the cards, and would peg probability as extremely low.
If things fizzle - or even if the strands/repertoires become disentangled - all will return to the somewhat uneasy quotidian of a few weeks ago.
If not, this could prove a critical juncture. But not one that will be easy to read in real time or with a happy ending.
(END)
China tried to enslave the world. Now the Chinese will free the world, or at least show the world that locking innocent people up is not the right thing to do. Thanks for sharing, and thanks to Rapoport.